This prediction update has been computed by Dr Martin Federspiel of the Freiburg Planetarium in Germany based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station, Table Mountain Observatory in California, Hipparcos, Bordeux and CAMC sources. The Tycho-2 position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

This updated path lies around 1 path width to the south of that given by Edwin Goffin with little difference in expected time. The path covers the central-northern two-thirds of Tasmania with the event visible at low altitude (around 12°) at 16:46:15 UT. Launceston lies near the northern edge of the predicted path. Crossing the Tasman Sea, the path covers most of northern and central Otago with Dunedin near the southern edge (16:46:30 UT).

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

• Date and approx. UT time of event: March 31, 2001 @ 16:46 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 10.07
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 2.8
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.0
• Path description: See above.
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_0302

• Approximate width [km]: 135
• Uncertainty [path widths]: 2
• Map: See below
• Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the nominal star position errors and the expected asteroid positional accuracy.
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TYC 5782-00707-1 = PPM 238254
• Constellation: Capricorn
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 21h 01m 43.586s; -14^o 53' 13.13"
• Position source: Tycho - 2
• V mag [mag]: 10.07
• B-V [mag]: +1.01
• Remarks:
• The target star is in northern Capricorn very near the border with Aquarius. It lies 2.5 degrees north-northwest of theta Capricorni (magnitude=4.1) and 50' southeast of SAO 164027 = DV Aqr (magnitude = 5.9 - slightly variable).

• Number, name: (5) Astraea
• Approx. diameter [km]: 125
• Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone), Table Mountain Observatory, Hipparcos, Bordeux, CAMC.

• UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2001 March 31, 16:49.1 UT
• Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.80
• Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 2.56
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 2.8
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.0
• Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 44.96
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 138, 42%
• Update computed by: Dr. Martin Federspiel - Freiburg, Germany.

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.