OCCULTATION PREDICTION:
OCCULTATION BY (519) SYLVANIA - 2000 MAY 31
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[Detailed finder charts by Stephen Kerr]
It has been suggested elsewhere that the astrometry used by Goffin in relation to (519) Sylvania may have been deffective - see comments in relation to June 22 event involving (519) Sylvania. As a consequence, a number of potential events involving (519) Sylvania may have been missed. One was identified by Graham Blow and published in Section Circular CN 2000/1 page 12 (PPM 296879 - May 30 - path across Papua New Guinea). A second one was found for May 31 by Stephen Kerr in the process of investigating the May 30 event in Guide 7. A prediction for this event is given here.
PREDICTION: 27 May 2000
This prediction has been generated in DOS OCCULT 4.2 by Stephen Kerr using orbital elements obtained from Lowell Observatory (ASTORB) on April 20, 2000. The Tycho 1 postion of the star has been used.
Summary:
This prediction shows a path crossing the New South Wales coast in the Lake Macquarie/Northern Sydney area (14:17:45 UT), running south-west over the Blue Mountains area (14:18 UT). Passing just to the south of Griffith (14:18:30 UT), the path then runs just south of Adelaide (14:19:35) and covers the southern half of Kangaroo Island. The path also passes relatively close to Albany and the southern areas of Western Australia (14:22 UT).
Observers should note the relatively short duration of the event and the presence of any almost identical star around 1' west of the target star.
THE EVENT AT A GLANCE:
- Date and approx. UT time of event: May 31, 2000 @ 14:18 UT
- Magnitude of target star: 9.81
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 3.2
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.6
- Path description: See above.
The Occultation Path:
- Approximate width [km]: 50
- Map: See below
Data for the target star:
Data for the minor planet:
- Number, name: (519) Sylvania
- Approx. diameter [km]: 48
Data for the event:
- UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2000 May 31, 14:16.189 UT
- Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.9
- Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 5.225
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 3.2
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.6
- Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: about 34"
- Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 133, 6%
- Prediction computed by: Stephen Kerr
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric predictions such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
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