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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (48) DORIS - 1999 OCTOBER 28

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[Prediction by Edwin Goffin]

[Prediction using OCCULT software]

Both the Goffin and OCCULT predictions suggest a path crossing South Australia in the region of Adelaide and northern NSW/southern Queensland in the region of Brisbane.


UPDATE: 24 October 1999

This prediction update is supplied by Jan Manek of the Stefanik Observatory, Prague, and is based on USNO/Flagstaff astrometry for the minor planet and the GSC 1.2 star position.

Summary:

The updated path is shifted about 2.5 path widths south with a time approx. 0.9 minutes earlier compared to Goffin's nominal prediction.

The path now crosses Melbourne and Canberra, with Sydney not far from the northern edge. Manek comments that the MP orbit itself is good, but the most uncertain factor is the star position. Thus, all observers within 4 path widths of the updated track have a chance to see this event. (i.e. all observers from southern Queensland to Tasmania).

Note that rather large telescopes will be needed because the star is magnitude 12.5 and the brighness drop will be only approximately ONE magnitude - we don't know the exact delta m expected as we do not have any accurate photometry for this star. The magnitude given on Edwin Goffin's chart is in fact the approximately V band magnitude.

  • Approx time for Melbourne: 11h 25m UT

    THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

    The Occultation Path: Data for the target star: Data for the minor planet: Data for the event:

    Doris Update (October 28)

    IMPORTANT NOTE!

    Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.

    Use these links for further information:
    [Planetary Occultations] [Using the Predictions]
    [Observing Details] [Timing Details] [Reporting Details] [Report Form]
    [Asteroid Occultation Results]


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