ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (237) COELESTINA - 1999 JULY 10
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[Prediction using OCCULT and GUIDE software]
This event was not predicted by Goffin. The OCCULT prediction gives a path running approximately the length of New Zealand.
UPDATE: 8 July 1999
This prediction update has been computed by Graham Blow based upon 7 astrometric position of the planet obtained by Ron Stone (USNO/Flagstaff) between June 13 and July 5. Reduction is against the GSC position of the star using OCCULT software.
Summary:
The update astrometry moves the path off New Zealand to the east by approximately one-half a track width.
Event time is about 20 seconds later than the nominal OCCULT prediction.
Note that the formal errors on this path are several track widths.
Approx time for Wellington: 16h 21m UT
THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:
- Date and approx. UT time of event: July 10, 1999 @ 16:21 UT
- Magnitude of target star: 10.1
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 2.7
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.5
- Path description: The path runs east of New Zealand.
Data for the target star:
- Name: GSC 6851 05208
- J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 18h 14m 54.972s; -27o 27' 01.6"
- Position source: GSC (Note: A straight average of three GSC positions)
- V mag [mag]: 12.7
- Remarks:
Data for the minor planet:
- Number, name: (237) Coelestina
- Approx. diameter [km]: 44
- Source of used astrometry: USNO
- Number of used observations: 7
Data for the event:
- UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 16:26.5 UT
- Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.7
- Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 5.605
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 2.7
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.5
- Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 158, 9%
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
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