ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (451) PATIENTIA - 1999 JUNE 30
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[Prediction by Edwin Goffin]
[Prediction using OCCULT software]
Both the Goffin and OCCULT predictions suggest a path across southern New Zealand and Tasmania.
UPDATE: 30 June 1999
This prediction update is supplied by Jan Manek of the Stefanik Observatory, Prague, and is based on USNO/Flagstaff and Table Mountain astrometry for the minor planet and the GSC 1.2 star position.
Note that the accuracy of the star position in the GSC 1.2 catalog is only 0.3". The GSC magnitude is approximately V-based so the brightness drop of 1.0 magnitude should be reliable.
Summary:
The update astrometry gives a path entirely in accord with both the Goffin and OCCULT predictions, with a time approximately 45 seconds earlier than Goffin's. Note that the magnitude drop at occultation may be 1.0, not the 1.7 predicted by Goffin.
Although the star is 10th magnitude, note that it lies only 23 degress from a 98% sunlit moon.
Approx time for Invercargill: 08h 49.8m UT
Approx time for Launceston: 08h 51.0m UT
THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:
- Date and approx. UT time of event: June 30, 1999 @ 08:50 UT
- Magnitude of target star: 10.7
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.0
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 16.0
- Path description: The path runs across the South Island of New Zealand and Tasmania.
The Occultation Path:
- Approximate width [km]: 240
- Uncertainty [path widths]: 2.5
- Uncertainty in time [s]: 45
- Map: See below
- Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the nominal errors in the observations.
- Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points.
Data for the target star:
- Name: GSC 6846 01093
- Constellation: Sagittarius
- J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 18h 06m 21.06s; -25o 01' 47.6"
- Position source: GSC 1.2
- Estimated accuracy ["]: 0.3"
- V mag [mag]: 10.7
- B-V [mag]: ???
- Remarks:
Data for the minor planet:
- Number, name: (451) Patientia
- Approx. diameter [km]: 230
- Orbit source: calculation Manek
- Source of used astrometry: USNI/Flagstaff (Ron Stone) and Table Mountain Observatory (Bill Owen)
- Number of used observations: 33 USNO + 14 TMO
- Number of rejected observations: 0
- Time covered by the observations: 1998 03 04 - 1999 06 26
- Rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.06", 0.07"
- Estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.07"
Data for the event:
- UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 09:44:53 UT
- Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 11.2
- Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 3.891
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.0
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 16.0
- Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 31.59
- Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 23, 98%
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
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[Observing Details]
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[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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